On 10/6/2013 11:25 AM, Henry Spencer wrote:
On Tue, 1 Oct 2013, Henry Vanderbilt wrote:SpaceX continues to say it didn't happen.More specifically, SpaceX says ".. our data confirms there was no rupture of any kind on the second stage."As witness SpaceX's reporting on the engine explosion a year ago, you need to read their statements about mishaps *very* critically, with careful attention to exact wording. E.g., last year they said (roughly) "the control system noticed falling chamber pressure and issued a shutdown command to the engine"; they did *not* say "the engine was still running properly until it shut down on command", but many people jumped to that conclusion. I expect this was precisely their intent. I find it interesting that this time, they keep saying "rupture" instead of "explosion"; this strikes me as odd but I haven't yet spotted what conclusion it's meant to make me jump to. :-)
It's not just SpaceX, of course; all startup rocket companies are under tremendous market/investor pressure to minimize problems or failures, and to avoid acknowledging them at all wherever possible.
That said, it has occurred to me that one scenario that would fit both the limited known facts and the letter of the public statements would be the 2nd-stage restart attempt resulting in a hard start bad enough to disable the engine and scatter some debris, but not bad enough to rupture the stage tanks or feed lines.
Speculative, of course, but it is worth noting that while they've acknowledged a restart problem, they've said nothing about its nature yet. It was FWIW apparently bad enough to immediately rule out a retry, given that remaining propellants were vented right afterward.
Henry