[AR] Re: danger (was Re: MSR reactors.)
- From: Henry Spencer <hspencer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: Arocket List <arocket@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 16 Jul 2019 18:55:36 -0400 (EDT)
On Sat, 13 Jul 2019, William Claybaugh wrote:
My source is John Young, independently confirmed by Jay Green, Chris
Kraft, and Glenn Lunney. Given 50% confidence in your one in nine guess;
I’m inclined to stick with what the cognizant experts concluded at the
time.
To quote a slogan used at the time: "In God we trust, all others bring
data." :-)
Owen Maynard (who was, among other things, head of systems engineering for
Apollo for a while) told us at some length how little faith people had in
predicted numbers for such things, back then. Useful as indicators and
for comparisons, but not to be taken too literally.
(Of course, this just strengthens the conclusion that you and I don't
really disagree very strongly here.)
I’ve no comment on the speechmaking.
One good pontification ("far more inherently dangerous") deserves another,
I'd say, although perhaps I should have been more concise.
Henry
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